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Western Washington Gardner Report Q4 2019
The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Employment in Washington State continues to soften; it is currently at an annual growth rate of 1.7%. I believe that is a temporary slowdown and we will see the pace of employment growth improve as we move further into the new year. It’s clear that businesses are continuing to feel the effects of the trade war with China and this is impacting hiring practices. This is, of course, in addition to the issues that Boeing currently faces regarding the 737 MAX.
In the fourth quarter of 2019 the state unemployment rate was 4.4%, marginally lower than the 4.5% level of a year ago. My most recent economic forecast suggests that statewide job growth in 2020 will rise 2.2%, with a total of 76,300 new jobs created.
HOME SALES
There were 18,322 home sales registered during the final quarter of 2019, representing an impressive increase of 4.7% from the same period in 2018.- Readers may remember that listing activity spiked in the summer of 2018 but could not be sustained, with the average number of listings continuing to fall. Year-over-year, the number of homes for sale in Western Washington dropped 31.7%.
- Compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, sales rose in nine counties and dropped in six. The greatest growth was in Whatcom County. San Juan County had significant declines, but this is a very small market which makes it prone to extreme swings.
- Pending home sales — a barometer for future closings — dropped 31% between the third and fourth quarters of 2019, suggesting that we may well see a dip in the number of closed sales in the first quarter of 2020.
There were 18,322 home sales registered during the final quarter of 2019, representing an impressive increase of 4.7% from the same period in 2018.
HOME PRICES
Home price growth in Western Washington spiked during fourth quarter, with average prices 8.3% higher than a year ago. The average sale price in Western Washington was $526,564, 0.7% higher than in the third quarter of 2019.- It’s worth noting that above-average price growth is happening in markets some distance from the primary job centers. I strongly feel this is due to affordability issues, which are forcing buyers farther out.
- Compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in San Juan County, where home prices were up 41.7%. Six additional counties also saw double-digit price increases.
- Home prices were higher in every county contained in this report. I expect this trend to continue in 2020, but we may see a softening in the pace of growth in some of the more expensive urban areas.
Home price growth in Western Washington spiked during fourth quarter, with average prices 8.3% higher than a year ago. The average sale price in Western Washington was $526,564, 0.7% higher than in the third quarter of 2019.
DAYS ON MARKET
- The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped four days compared to the third quarter of 2019.
- For the second quarter in a row, Thurston County was the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 29 days to sell. In nine counties, the length of time it took to sell a home dropped compared to the same period a year ago. Market time rose in four counties and two were unchanged.
- Across the entire region, it took an average of 47 days to sell a home in the fourth quarter. This was up nine days over the third quarter of this year.
- Market time remains below the long-term average across the region, a trend that will likely continue until we see more inventory come to market — possibly as we move through the spring.
CONCLUSIONS
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
The housing market ended the year on a high note, with transactions and prices picking up steam. I believe the uncertainty of 2018 (when we saw significant inventory enter the market) has passed and home buyers are back in the market. Unfortunately, buyers’ desire for more inventory is not being met and I do not see any significant increase in listing activity on the horizon. As such, I have moved the needle more in favor of home sellers.
ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
Market Insights | January 2020
Our local real estate market is unique and we know that we can’t depend on Seattle real estate news to have a thorough understanding of what’s going on and what to expect here. That’s why Marla Heagle, owner and REALTOR®, prepares a hyperlocal report every month. This in-depth look at the Stanwood and Camano Island market includes key statistics, like listings sold by price point or the number of days on the market, and empowers our agents and our clients with the most up-to-date and relevant information.
Subscribe to Market Insights here!
January 2020 Market Insights
Strong regional economy putting pressure on local housing market
By Evan Caldwell | Jan. 29, 2019
Stanwood, Wash. – Economic growth doesn’t come without some burden.
“We are suffering from our own successes,” said economist Matthew Gardner. “We have a robust economy, and that means growing pains.”
The solid economy equates to more jobs — and more people — moving to the region, putting continued pressure on infrastructure and housing markets, he said. Gardner spoke about the national, state and local economic past, present and future to about 250 people at an economic forum Friday, Jan. 24, at the Camano Center.
“If you want a job, you can certainly find a job,” said Gardner, citing Snohomish County’s low 2.5% unemployment rate. “And jobs and income growth should increase this year.”
Snohomish County continues to be one of the fastest-growing counties in the nation. By 2025, an estimated 250,000 people are predicted to join the 800,000 already living in the county, according to estimates by the state Office of Financial Management.
However, finding affordable places to live is the current challenge, said Gardner,
Gardner is the chief economist for Seattle-based Windermere Real Estate and also sits on the Washington Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors. He chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington and is an advisory board member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at UW, where he also lectures in real estate economics.
“People are coming, that’s for sure, you can see it in the housing demand,” he said. “We need to be building more homes.”
In the Stanwood and Camano ZIP codes of 98292 and 98292, the number of new listings per month continued a steady downward trend in 2019, according to Northwest MLS data. In December 2019, there were 129 homes for sale in the area, down from 148 in December 2018.
Prices have climbed. The average median price for a home in Stanwood increased to $443,000 in 2019 from $430,000 in 2018 and $389,995 in 2017, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data. On Camano Island, the median cost of a home rose to $434,000 in 2019 from $410,000 in 2018 and $394,975 in 2017.
“Because inventory is so tight, housing prices will continue to rise in 2020 .. and it could be a very tight market for a very long time,” Gardner said. “So, why aren’t there more homes for sale? They’re living in them longer and moving less frequently for jobs.”
Americans nowadays are staying in their homes for about eight years before moving – up from four years from 2000-09, according to Attom Data Solutions, a real-estate data firm.
In addition to newcomers, millennials are starting to enter the housing market, adding increased pressure in the first-time homebuyer category, Gardner said. Even the few hundred new homes and about 150 new apartment units planned to be built in Stanwood in the next few years are insufficient to meet demand, Gardner said.
“To better compete, we need to create housing people can afford to live in — the teachers, the firefighters,” he said. “And certainly cities will need to address infrastructure needs, and governments will need to work on mass transit options.”
However, several factors can stymie new home construction, such as cost of land and materials, permitting constraints and an expensive construction workforce. In Snohomish County in 2019, there were 2,221 permits to build new single-family homes, down from 5,719 permits in 2005. On Camano in 2018, there were 375 permits for new home construction, down from a high of 752 in 2005.
Gardner said the U.S. economy is due for a minor recession in the coming years. The U.S. was last in recession from 2007-09.
“We might have a recession in 2021 in some segment of the economy, but it’ll be OK; it’ll be modest,” Gardner predicted, citing data showing major companies slowing the pace of hiring in the run up to the presidential election. “What do companies do when they’re worried? Nothing. Like a deer in headlights, they freeze, they’re being cautious.”
This article was originally published on goskagit.com.
Economist to talk about 2020 job, housing markets at free forum
By Evan Caldwell | Jan. 15, 2019
Stanwood, Wash. – Matthew Gardner returns with his crystal ball to peek at what 2020 holds for the local economy and housing market.
Gardner, the chief economist for Seattle-based Windermere Real Estate, is the keynote speaker for the 2020 Economic and Housing Forecast community forum 6 p.m. Friday, Jan. 24, at the Camano Center, 606 Arrowhead Rd. on Camano Island. The forum will take a macro and micro look at the economy, the economic forecast and housing.
“In 2020, I expect payrolls to continue growing, but the rate of growth will slow as the country adds fewer than 1.7 million new jobs,” Gardner wrote in his 2020 forecast last month. “Due to this hiring slow down, the unemployment rate will start to rise, but still end the year at a very respectable 4.1%.”
Gardner, who spoke to a packed house at last year’s event, wrote “many economists, including me, spent much of 2019 worried about the specter of a looming recession in 2020. Thankfully, such fears have started to wane.”
The forum is free and open to the public, but reservations are required. Call 360-387-4663 or visit windermerestanwoodcamano.com/2020-forecast. Doors open at 6:30 p.m. for a cocktail and appetizer hour, followed by Gardner’s presentation and then a question-answer session with the audience.
This article was originally published on goskagit.com.
Agent Spotlight: All In, For You
At Windermere, extraordinary is our ordinary. Our agents live and work in Stanwood and Camano Island. They know the area better than anyone and are here to help you. Every one of our agents understands how important your home is. Whether you’re buying a new home, selling a property or looking for someone to manage your rental property, we’ll take care of you.
Here are three agents who know what it means to be all in, for you.
Michael Ofstad
Michael is described by his clients as dedicated, knowledgable and hardworking. He’s the kind of agent who will catch a 6 a.m. ferry every Sunday for weeks on end for his clients, or crawl through the attic to help with ductwork.
On one occasion when Michael was representing one buyer, the underwriter demanded that the back deck be finished in order to fund. When the seller refused to complete the project in the time allotted, Michael personally helped his client build the 600 sqft deck and the deal closed!
Dave Dannenberg and Tamara Matthews
Dave and Tamara operate as a team, meaning you’ll have two agents that are entirely committed to each of their clients. They’ll be there to support you – wherever “there” maybe!
When Dave and Tamara were representing one buyer, there were some last-minute contract changes before closing that required new signatures. The buyer was out of town at the RV Club gathering at the Lynden Fair Grounds and couldn’t be reached by phone. So Dave and Tamara drove 60 miles to Lynden and went around to each RV until they found their client, got the signatures and closed the deal.
April Nickerson
April is an expert when it comes to Stanwood and Camano Island, born and raised in the Pacific Northwest and highly involved with the community. Her knowledge, experience, and resolve come across in every interaction.
Once when April was representing a seller, she came by on closing day to help with some last-minute cleaning. When she got to the house, she saw that the owner hadn’t finished moving out of the home. April came back with a UHaul truck and trailer to get everything else packed up.
She said, “I was there for my clients and determined to help in any way that I could.”
Remodel for the Most Resale Value
What’s the best remodeling project for your home? The answer, in part, depends on where you live. Every year, Remodeling Magazine evaluates which projects bring the most return at resale in different markets around the country in their “Cost vs. Value” report. For the purposes of this blog, we are focusing on the Pacific states (WA, OR, CA, AL) and the Mountain states (MT, ID, UT, CO, NV).
According to Remodeling Magazine, these are the six top projects in those two regions that currently have the best return on your investment when it comes time to sell. To see the full report, click here.
Garage Door Replacement
The project with the most return from Washington State to Nevada? A new garage door.
In the Pacific States, replacing your garage door will cost an average $3,785, but will increase your resale value by $4,686, recouping 123.8 percent of what you paid for it. Homes in the Mountain States will also benefit from a garage door replacement, recouping 98.6 percent of their costs.
Due to its size, a garage door can have a big impact on a home’s curb appeal. But adding to your home’s aesthetic is only one advantage; the warranty that comes with the new garage door is also a selling point for potential buyers who can trust that they likely won’t have to deal with any maintenance issues in the near term.
Manufactured Stone Veneer
As long as the new stone veneer is consistent with your neighborhood’s overall look, this siding is the second-best project across the Pacific and Mountain states.
Stone veneer can replace your home’s existing siding, adding a fresh, modern look that conjures a cozy vibe all the way from the street, before buyers ever step foot inside. Along the West Coast, it can recoup 110.4 percent of the cost when you sell, and Mountain states will recoup 96.5 percent of the cost.
Wood Deck Addition
While building a deck might seem like a big undertaking, it’s actually a pretty cost-effective way to positively impact your home’s resale value. Pacific states can expect to pay around $15,000 and Mountain states just above $13,000, but they’ll see 87.8 percent and 74.3 percent recouped respectively when they sell.
Adding a deck extends the living space of your home and provides even more area for entertaining, relaxing, and enjoying the outdoors. Whether you choose a natural wood deck or a low-maintenance composite deck, you can pick from a variety of styles based on the lay of your land and the areas of your backyard you wish to highlight.
Minor Kitchen Remodel
No need to move walls or appliances around, a minor kitchen remodel will do the trick to recoup 87.1 percent of the cost in the Pacific states, and 80.3 percent in the Mountain states.
An outdated kitchen can go from drab to fab and become a focal point with a fresh palette. Replace the cabinet doors with new shaker-style wood panels and metal or metal-looking hardware. Switch out the old counter tops with laminate that matches the new look. Think about adding a resilient flooring option, then finish the project with a fresh coat of paint to the walls, trim, and ceiling.
Grand Entrance
Looking to improve your curb appeal and create an entrance that guests and homebuyers won’t soon forget? Add a fiberglass grand entrance. This project involves replacing a standard-sized front door with a larger opening with dual sidelights (glass panels). Typically costing around $8,000, Pacific states will see 85.1 percent of that recouped in the sale, and Mountain states will see 71 percent.
Siding Replacement
Depending on the size of your home, replacing the siding can be an expensive undertaking. However, it’s a project that comes with high returns. For Mountain states, sellers can expect 75.4 percent of the costs recouped, and Pacific sellers will see 84.3 percent.
Not only is siding one of the first things a buyer sees, but it also serves as an indicator of the overall health of the home. Broken or damaged siding could mean that there are other problems with the home, such as pests and rot. Replacing old siding is a cost-effective way to boost your home’s curb appeal and ensure buyers are going to walk through your front door.
Western Washington Gardner Report Q3 2019
The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Washington State employment has softened slightly to an annual growth rate of 2%, which is still a respectable number compared to other West Coast states and the country as a whole. In all, I expect that Washington will continue to add jobs at a reasonable rate though it is clear that businesses are starting to feel the effects of the trade war with China and this is impacting hiring practices. The state unemployment rate was 4.6%, marginally higher than the 4.4% level of a year ago. My most recent economic forecast suggests that statewide job growth in 2019 will rise by 2.2%, with a total of 88,400 new jobs created.
HOME SALES
- There were 22,685 home sales during the third quarter of 2019, representing a slight increase of 0.8% from the same period in 2018 and essentially at the same level as in the second quarter.
- Listing activity — which rose substantially from the middle of last year — appears to have settled down. This is likely to slow sales as there is less choice in the market.
- Compared to the third quarter of 2018, sales rose in five counties, remained static in one, and dropped in nine. The greatest growth was in Skagit and Clallam counties. Jefferson, Kitsap, and Cowlitz counties experienced significant declines.
- The average number of homes for sale rose 11% between the second and third quarters. However, inventory is 14% lower than in the same quarter of 2018. In fact, no county contained in this report had more homes for sale in the third quarter than a year ago.
HOME PRICES
- Home price growth in Western Washington notched a little higher in the third quarter, with average prices 4.2% higher than a year ago. The average sales price in Western Washington was $523,016. It is worth noting, though, that prices were down 3.3% compared to the second quarter of this year.
- Home prices were higher in every county except Island, though the decline there was very small.
- When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in Grays Harbor County, where home prices were up 22%. San Juan, Jefferson, and Cowlitz counties also saw double-digit price increases.
- Affordability issues are driving buyers further out which is resulting in above-average price growth in outlying markets. I expect home prices to continue appreciating as we move through 2020, but the pace of growth will continue to slow.
DAYS ON MARKET
- The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped one day when compared to the third quarter of 2018.
- Thurston County was the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of only 20 days to sell. There were six counties where the length of time it took to sell a home dropped compared to the same period a year ago. Market time rose in six counties, while two counties were unchanged.
- Across the entire region, it took an average of 38 days to sell a home in the third quarter. This was down 3 days compared to the second quarter of this year.
- Market time remains below the long-term average across the region and this trend is likely to continue until more inventory comes to market, which I do not expect will happen until next spring.
CONCLUSIONS
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. I am leaving the needle in the same position as the first and second quarters, as demand appears to still be strong.
The market continues to benefit from low mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed rates is currently around 3.6% and is unlikely to rise significantly anytime soon. Even as borrowing costs remain very competitive, it’s clear buyers are not necessarily jumping at any home that comes on the market. Although it’s still a sellers’ market, buyers have become increasingly price-conscious which is reflected in slowing home price growth.
ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
House Hunters on Camano Island with Jerry Evans
Jerry Evans is a Windermere agent, an Air Force veteran, and a proud Stanwood-Camano resident.
Whether you’re looking for a beachfront getaway, a comfortable forever home, or something else entirely, our Windermere agents are the experts you can trust, and we won’t stop until we find your new home.
One of our dedicated agents, Jerry Evans, recently demonstrated his resolve and local expertise on HGTV’s House Hunters. Dan and Kristi, a couple from Mill Creek, were interested in buying their forever home and moving in together on Camano Island. They were hoping to find a home that featured a gorgeous view and would allow them to comfortably host their families and friends. Obviously we won’t give away which house they chose, but spoiler alert: Evans helped them find the perfect place in their budget, and the couple is loving life here on Camano Island!
“It was amazing to be featured on House Hunters,” Evans said. “I got to show HGTV’s viewers a little of what makes Camano Island such an amazing place for anyone looking for a home, and of course I got to help my clients find their first home together.”
Evans has been a Camano Island resident for seven years and worked as a Windermere agent since 2013. He and his wife, Miranda, work together to deliver the best possible experience for every client. They are highly involved in the community and pride themselves on their extensive local knowledge. Evans also takes regular courses and stays on top of industry trends, making sure his clients always have the most up-to-date information and cutting-edge tools at their disposal.
To watch the complete episode, visit HGTV.com.
#TackleHomelessness with Windermere
We are proud to be part of the Stanwood and Camano Island community. We believe it’s important to stay connected with our neighbors and keep a pulse on our community. That’s why you’ll find us grilling hot dogs at National Night Out and passing out hot cocoa at the Holiday Tree Lighting. We also believe it’s our responsibility to operate in a way that brings value and positive change to our community. That’s why we’re raising money for the Stanwood Camano Community Resources Foundation through our Friday Night Lights campaign this fall.
Photo by Evan Caldwell, Stanwood Camano News
Windermere Stanwood Camano teamed up with the Stanwood Spartans football team and will donate $50 per touchdown this season as part of their #tacklehomelessness campaign. Money raised through Windermere Stanwood and Camano Island and the Windermere Foundation will benefit the Stanwood Camano Community Resources Foundation.
“We chose the Stanwood Camano Community Resources Foundation because their anti-poverty programs are strategically designed to relieve the effects and address the cause of poverty in our community,” said Marla Heagle, owner/broker of Windermere Real Estate Stanwood and Camano Island.
The Stanwood and Camano Island offices will be one of 10 Windermere franchises fundraising for the Windermere Foundation and the #tacklehomelessness campaign this fall, including Windermere Real Estate as the official real estate company of the Seattle Seahawks.
“We’re grateful for this opportunity to engage with our community in such a meaningful way, and we feel privileged to be able to give back to the place where we live and work,” Heagle added.
Photo by Evan Caldwell, Stanwood Camano News
In 30 years since its inception, the Windermere Foundation has raised $38 million to support nonprofits that help low-income and homeless families. A portion of every transaction with Windermere agents goes toward the Foundation and the charities it supports. Additional donations from Windermere employees and community members have helped more than 500 nonprofits and changed thousands of lives since 1989.
Come cheer on the Stanwood Spartans with us this season, and donate to the Windermere Foundation and its efforts in Stanwood and Camano Island online at windermere.com/foundation. We’ll see you in the stands!
Read full article here.
Agent Spotlight: All In, For You
At Windermere, extraordinary is our ordinary. Every one of our agents understands how important your home is. Whether you’re buying a new home, selling a property or looking for someone to manage your rental property, we’ll take care of you.
Here are three agents who know what it means to be all in, for you.
Hans Ostrander
Hans is the type of agent who always gives 110 percent – he’s even been known to help sellers pack up their belongings, and he consistently receives the highest praise from his clients.
One time, Hans was representing a seller who lived out of the area. His seller asked him to meet the septic service technician at the house, but the lid was buried. Hans grabbed a shovel and dug around with the technician for two hours trying to find the tank. When they finished, the technician laughed and said, “Never in all my years has a real estate agent helped me dig.”
Michael Borthwick
Michael is our resident Property Management expert. He’s been in the business for almost a decade, and he believes it is his job to find qualified tenants for his landlords and take good care of them.
On one occasion, Michael received a call from a tenant on the southend of Camano Island: water was gushing from an outside faucet and his wife was in labor. Michael immediately drove down to the property and assessed the situation. He turned off the water and called several plumbers in an effort to find an available one. He knew his tenant would need the water when they returned home with their newborn baby, and he didn’t want his client’s property to be seriously damaged so he made sure the leaking shutoff valve was repaired right then and there.
Jeni and Andy Bottin
Jeni and Andy work together to help people find their slice of paradise on Camano Island. They make a commitment to each one of their clients to support them every step of the way, including on moving day.
For one particular client, Jeni and Andy actually helped sell their home in another location and buy a home on Camano Island. The buyer was excited to pull everything together so Jeni arranged a storage unit for her client to use during the transition, and lined up a moving company to assist on the day of. Excellent agents through and through, Jeni and Andy wanted to be sensitive to their client’s needs and see it through to the end.
