Windermere Chief Economist Shares Local Predictions for 2023

Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist, joined us at the Camano Center where he delivered his 2023 forecast for Stanwood and Camano Island. He provided an in-depth look at the local market and highlighted key trends that will impact the area’s housing market over the next few years. His forecast provided essential insight into where Camano Island’s real estate industry is headed – and what potential buyers and sellers need to know.

In the current economic climate, the cost of living can be a significant burden for many. However, recent developments are suggesting that inflation might be on its way down across the board. This is in part due to falling gas prices, which have decreased dramatically over the last few months. According to Gardner, this trend is heading in the right direction; however, it isn’t happening as quickly as consumers would like.

“I contend that the FOMC waited too long before starting to shift their policy stance and that they will continue aggressively raising rates for longer than necessary due to inflation, which will likely result in a recession,” Gardner went on to say, “The Fed is still willing to risk a recession to bring inflation to heel and a “modest” contraction is now baked into economists’ forecast”

What does this mean for our local market in Stanwood and Camano Island?

“Rates averaged 3.11% in 2021 but the Fed withdrawing much of their support led them significantly higher – peaking at over 7% in 2022 before starting to yield” Gardner shared, “I believe that rates peaked last quarter with inflation slowing and bond yields pulling back rates will slowly trend lower as we move through 2023.”

But Matthew Gardner isn’t the only one to predict this. When comparing his predictions with those of other analysts’ expectations no one is predicting rates to rise further with their end-of-year mortgage rate predictions ranging from as low as 5.2% up to 6.4%.

When looking at sale prices on homes in our communities Gardner expects prices to reduce. Buyers are again negotiating and sellers must adjust to that shift in the market. Although there has been a pullback in those prices Gardner cautions us not to worry but to recognize that the prices are correcting after the artificial conditions created by the pandemic. “Prices are correcting but are unlikely to fall much further before they start to stabilize and then returning to the long-term trend in price growth,” Gardner shares.

“I expect that 2023 will be a year of transition,” Gardner concluded. “It may feel rough, but this is actually a good thing and will allow a more stable market to return!”

At Windermere, our responsiveness to the local market, dedication to the community, and commitment to our trade is why we help our clients buy and sell more real estate in Stanwood and Camano Island than any other company.

We are all in, for you.

Take a look at Matthew Gardners Recent Blog: 2023 Real Estate Forecast: Why This Market Won’t Be Like 2008